My name is FULLNAME from ADDRESS. I am very much pleased to write this Statement of Purpose to upfront myself with my intention for the further studies in Australia. I would like to pursue Master of Information Technology with a specialization in Web Engineering for 2013/2014 at Macquarie University, Sydney. Me, working as IT professional and web developer, I found many gaps between the working procedure and use of technology while developing system and websites so I am interested to improve myself thus I researched throughout the internet and find out that my advancements and improvements can be fulfilled by the Master of Information Technology with a specialization in Web Engineering thus I choose this course and your university and will be focused to achieve mastery of subject area and web technology and like to be an integral part for betterment of technology.
I have done my schooling from NAMEOFSCHOOL scoring SCORE and my Higher secondary level in science scoring SCORE. Accordingly, I have completed my four-year bachelor degree Bachelor of Computer Information System with major in programming and web technology in 2011 scoring SGPA SCORE from Nobel College of Pokhara University.
While studying I was attracted with the web technologies and programs to create websites so my goal was to be web developer and continue my profession. After completing bachelors I started working and already gained 3 years of professional experience as web developer with focused on ecommerce sites programming and management. I have worked as freelancer in odesk.com and freelancer.com and have received many good feedbacks from clients and gained popularity between them. I have finished writing a book about programming OpenCart platform with Packt Publication named “Getting Started with OpenCart module”. I can make a complete ecommerce site starting from slicing into HTML and CSS, code it in PHP and Mysql to make a complete product ordering system and receive multiple payments and shipping and am providing annual maintenance support for more than 10 sites. But, I found many gaps between the international market and the way we perform our tasks in our local market while working with international clients thus I planned to broaden my minds and technologies used to make web programs and websites, handle the codes easily, be more productive with more risk management and provide quality products in web technology thus checking your course structure I am interested to join MIT with a specialization in Web Engineering and I firmly believe that this will be an ideal path for me.
There are several reasons due to which I am interested positively in Australia education systems as it provides good balance between theoretical and industry relevant practical knowledge as well as academic excellence, value for money, growing destination, worldwide recognition and merit base scholarships for the deserving students. Moreover, I believed there are many values, qualities and ethical knowledge to be learnt from Australia and the University.
Why study at Macquarie University?
I am trying to get into Macquarie University to pursue my MIT with a specialization in Web Engineering because I believed that my long–term goals, dreams, knowledge, skills and experiences gained through such a dynamic program would bring newer insights in my professional, personal outlook on life, society and the business environment in today’s globalized world. That’s why I believe that your university will be a perfect match to fulfill my management dreams.
I know it will help me to make web application systematic, disciplined, and quantifiable, best approaches to the design, production, deployment, operation, maintenance and evolution of Web-based software products.
I feel that your university is the right place to embark upon an academic career. I am confident that with my commitment and hard work, I can excel and I will leave no stone unturned and I’ll try to make the university feel proud of having me in your University. After completion of the course I am supposed to be one of the best web techs savvy and help to improve the web technology for betterment of the society and teach my locals to use the improved technologies which will help them to improve productivity and quality.
I would therefore request to be considered for granting visa to get a chance to enhance, to develop my skills, throughout my career too.
FULLNAME
Tuesday, July 14, 2015
Statement of Purpose (SOP) written for Macquarie University
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Searching for best apps to develop class diagram then use nulab Cacoo
Being a developer I have to design class diagram, flow charts, business organizational chart, matrix diagram, venn diagram, SWOT diagram and schedule diagram and many more.
I was looking for free and private class diagram and found this cacoo and am very happy to use it and it's drag and drop system is so easy to use.
We can draw:
I was looking for free and private class diagram and found this cacoo and am very happy to use it and it's drag and drop system is so easy to use.
We can draw:
- Business Diagram like: Business organizational chart, matrix diagram, venn diagram, SWOT diagram and schedule diagram
- Flow Chart
- Mind Map
- Network Map like: network diagram and AWS design template
- Office layout
- Sitemap
- Wireframe for different devices
- UML where you can draw state machine diagram, use case diagram, sequence diagram, class diagram, activity diagram, package diagram
- Database design
- Greeting Card design, Happy New Year, happy holidays, happy birthday and many more
- Electronics diagrams like Ohm's law
- And also contained User defined Templates.
So containing many drawing section, I am happy to use it and hope it keeps on providing free account.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Android Development, Understanding Hello World
With that confirmed, let’s take a step back and have a real look at your first Android application. Activity is the base class for the visual, interactive components of your application; it is roughly equivalent to a Form in traditional desktop development. The following snippet shows the skeleton code for an Activity-based class; note that it extends Activity, overriding the onCreate method.
package com.paad.helloworld;
import android.app.Activity;
import android.os.Bundle;
public class HelloWorld extends Activity {
/** Called when the activity is first created. */
@Override
public void onCreate(Bundle icicle) {
super.onCreate(icicle);
}
}
What’s missing from this template is the layout of the visual interface. In Android, visual components
are called Views, which are similar to controls in traditional desktop development.
In the Hello World template created by the wizard, the onCreate method is overridden to call setContentView, which lays out the user interface by infl ating a layout resource, as highlighted below:
@Override
public void onCreate(Bundle icicle) {
super.onCreate(icicle);
setContentView(R.layout.main);
}
The resources for an Android project are stored in the res folder of your project hierarchy, which includes drawable, layout, and values subfolders. The ADT plug-in interprets these XML resources to provide design time access to them through the R variable.
The following code snippet shows the UI layout defined in the main.xml file created by the Android
project template:
<?xml version=”1.0” encoding=”utf-8”?>
<LinearLayout xmlns:android=”http://schemas.android.com/apk/res/android”
android:orientation=”vertical”
android:layout_width=”fill_parent”
android:layout_height=”fill_parent”>
<TextView
android:layout_width=”fill_parent”
android:layout_height=”wrap_content”
android:text=”Hello World, HelloWorld”
/>
</LinearLayout>
Defining your UI in XML and inflating it is the preferred way of implementing your user interfaces, as it neatly decouples your application logic from your UI design.
To get access to your UI elements in code, you add identifier attributes to them in the XML definition. You can then use the findViewById method to return a reference to each named item. The following XML snippet shows an ID attribute added to the TextView widget in the Hello World template:
<TextView
android:id=”@+id/myTextView”
android:layout_width=”fill_parent”
android:layout_height=”wrap_content”
android:text=”Hello World, HelloWorld”
/>
And the following snippet shows how to get access to it in code:
TextView myTextView = (TextView)findViewById(R.id.myTextView);
Alternatively (although it’s not considered good practice), if you need to, you can create your layout directly in code as shown below:
public void onCreate(Bundle icicle) {
super.onCreate(icicle);
LinearLayout.LayoutParams lp;
lp = new LinearLayout.LayoutParams(LayoutParams.FILL_PARENT,
LayoutParams.FILL_PARENT);
LinearLayout.LayoutParams textViewLP;
textViewLP = new LinearLayout.LayoutParams(LayoutParams.FILL_PARENT,
LayoutParams.WRAP_CONTENT);
LinearLayout ll = new LinearLayout(this);
ll.setOrientation(LinearLayout.VERTICAL);
TextView myTextView = new TextView(this);
myTextView.setText(“Hello World, HelloWorld”);
ll.addView(myTextView, textViewLP);
this.addContentView(ll, lp);
}
All the properties available in code can be set with attributes in the XML layout. As well as allowing
easier substitution of layout designs and individual UI elements, keeping the visual design decoupled
from the application code helps keep the code more concise.
Android Application Development Tutorials, installing android sdk, java ide and ecplise
Versions of the SDK, Java, and Eclipse are available for Windows, Mac OS, and Linux.
Android code is written using Java syntax, and the core Android libraries include most of the features from the core Java APIs.
The biggest challenge with Android, as with any new development toolkit, is learning the features and limitations of its APIs.
The power of Android comes from its APIs, not from Java, so being unfamiliar with all the Java specific classes won’t be a big disadvantage.
To get started, you’ll need to download and install the following:
- The Android SDK
- Java Development Kit (JDK)
http://java.sun.com/javase/downloads/index.jsp
The Android SDK is completely open.
http://code.google.com/android/download.html
you can use any text editor or Java IDE you’re comfortable with and use the developer tools in the SDK to compile, test, and debug the code snippets and sample applications.
Developing with Eclipse
Using Eclipse with the ADT plug-in for your Android development offers some signifi cant advantages. Eclipse is an open source IDE (integrated development environment) particularly popular for Java development. It’s available to download for each of the development platforms supported by Android (Windows, Mac OS, and Linux) from the Eclipse foundation homepage:
www.eclipse.org/downloads/
Installing Eclipse consists of uncompressing the download into a new folder. When that’s done, run the Eclipse executable. When it starts for the fi rst time, create a new workspace for your Android development.
The ADT plug-in for Eclipse simplifi es your Android development by integrating the developer tools, including the emulator and .class-to-.dex converter, directly into the IDE. While you don’t have to use the ADT plug-in, it does make creating, testing, and debugging your applications faster and easier.
The ADT plug-in integrates the following into Eclipse:
❑ An Android Project Wizard that simplifi es creating new projects and includes a basic application template
❑ Forms-based manifest, layout, and resource editors to help create, edit, and validate your XML resources
❑ Automated building of Android projects, conversion to Android executables (.dex), packaging to package fi les (.apk), and installation of packages onto Dalvik virtual machines
❑ The Android Emulator, including control of the emulator’s appearance, network connection settings, and the ability to simulate incoming calls and SMS messages
❑ The Dalvik Debug Monitoring Service (DDMS), which includes port forwarding; stack, heap, and thread viewing; process details; and screen capture facilities
❑ Access to the device or emulator’s fi lesystem, allowing you to navigate the folder tree and transfer fi les
❑ Runtime debugging, so you can set breakpoints and view call stacks
❑ All Android/Dalvik log and console outputs
Android SDK,the Java development kit, Java IDE, Dalvik byte code, Android Emulator to run your projects, Dalvik Debug Monitoring Service (DDMS), best practices for writing mobile applications, overcome the inherent hardware and environmental challenges for android application development, good mobile design principles, biggest challenge with Android, some of the specific optimization techniques for android application development, Dalvik virtual machine, Downloading and Installing the Android SDK, Eclipse with the Android Developer Tool (ADT) plug-in, Android development environment, Installing the ADT Plug-in,
android development: Collection of libraries in android
Android Libraries for developing the application. Core APIs for android
Android offers a number of APIs for developing your applications. The following list of core APIs
should provide an insight into what’s available; all Android devices will offer support for at least
these APIs:
❑ android.util The core utility package contains low-level classes like specialized containers,
string formatters, and XML parsing utilities.
❑ android.os The operating system package provides access to basic operating system services
like message passing, interprocess communication, clock functions, and debugging.
❑ android.graphics The graphics API supplies the low-level graphics classes that support canvases,
colors, and drawing primitives, and lets you draw on canvases.
❑ android.text The text processing tools for displaying and parsing text.
❑ android.database Supplies the low-level classes required for handling cursors when working
with databases.
❑ android.content The content API is used to manage data access and publishing by providing
services for dealing with resources, content providers, and packages.
❑ android.view Views are the core user interface class. All user interface elements are constructed
using a series of Views to provide the user interaction components.
❑ android.widget Built on the View package, the widget classes are the “here’s one we created
earlier” user-interface elements for you to use in your applications. They include lists, buttons,
and layouts.
❑ com.google.android.maps A high-level API that provides access to native map controls that
you can use within your application. Includes the MapView control as well as the Overlay and
MapController classes used to annotate and control your embedded maps.
❑ android.app A high-level package that provides access to the application model. The application
package includes the Activity and Service APIs that form the basis for all your Android
applications.
❑ android.provider To ease developer access to certain standard Content Providers (such as the
contacts database), the Provider package offers classes to provide access to standard databases
included in all Android distributions.
❑ android.telephony The telephony APIs give you the ability to directly interact with the device’s
phone stack, letting you make, receive, and monitor phone calls, phone status, and SMS messages.
❑ android.webkit The WebKit package features APIs for working with Web-based content,
including a WebView control for embedding browsers in your activities and a cookie manager.
Android Libraries for developing the application. Core APIs for android, core class collection,
Android offers a number of APIs for developing your applications. The following list of core APIs
should provide an insight into what’s available; all Android devices will offer support for at least
these APIs:
 |
| android framework |
❑ android.util The core utility package contains low-level classes like specialized containers,
string formatters, and XML parsing utilities.
❑ android.os The operating system package provides access to basic operating system services
like message passing, interprocess communication, clock functions, and debugging.
❑ android.graphics The graphics API supplies the low-level graphics classes that support canvases,
colors, and drawing primitives, and lets you draw on canvases.
❑ android.text The text processing tools for displaying and parsing text.
❑ android.database Supplies the low-level classes required for handling cursors when working
with databases.
❑ android.content The content API is used to manage data access and publishing by providing
services for dealing with resources, content providers, and packages.
❑ android.view Views are the core user interface class. All user interface elements are constructed
using a series of Views to provide the user interaction components.
❑ android.widget Built on the View package, the widget classes are the “here’s one we created
earlier” user-interface elements for you to use in your applications. They include lists, buttons,
and layouts.
❑ com.google.android.maps A high-level API that provides access to native map controls that
you can use within your application. Includes the MapView control as well as the Overlay and
MapController classes used to annotate and control your embedded maps.
❑ android.app A high-level package that provides access to the application model. The application
package includes the Activity and Service APIs that form the basis for all your Android
applications.
❑ android.provider To ease developer access to certain standard Content Providers (such as the
contacts database), the Provider package offers classes to provide access to standard databases
included in all Android distributions.
❑ android.telephony The telephony APIs give you the ability to directly interact with the device’s
phone stack, letting you make, receive, and monitor phone calls, phone status, and SMS messages.
❑ android.webkit The WebKit package features APIs for working with Web-based content,
including a WebView control for embedding browsers in your activities and a cookie manager.
Android Libraries for developing the application. Core APIs for android, core class collection,
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Nothing's impossible with god on your side
Nothing's impossible with god on your side, you are going to give me your best, I am going to give my best
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Really Amazing Refreaction Capture
Real Refraction
Really Amazing Refreaction Capture, funny animal refraction capture
Really Addicted with the Jokeroo
QUANTIFYING INVESTOR EMOTIONS OR INVESTOR SENTIMENT
We know that greed and fear rule the markets. But did you know that when investors gets too greedy, markets usually fall, and when investors are overcome with fear, markets usually rise. So how can when we monitor investors emotions and take advantage of investors emotional extremes?
Welcome to the world of investor sentiment analysis.
Investor psychology has been analysed for at least 250 years. Charles MacKay wrote his book, 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds', in 1841, describing, among other manias, the herd mentality that caused the South Sea Bubble. Since then, many academics have published financial theories based on the concept that individuals act rationally and consider all available information in the decision-making process. But real life frequently demonstrates that the behavior of equity markets is irrational and unpredictable. A field known as "behavioural finance" has evolved over the years attempting to explain how emotions influence investors and their decision-making process. Studying human psychology helps predict the general direction of financial markets as well as many stock market bubbles and crashes. At the height of a period of optimism, greed moves stocks higher, ignoring business fundamentals and therefore creating an overpriced market. At the other extreme, fear moves prices lower, ignoring obvious opportunities and creates an undervalued market.
One important study, ("Aspects of Investor Psychology," The Journal of Portfolio Management, Summer 1998) found that investors are much more distressed by prospective losses than they are made happy by equivalent gains. Some researchers theorize that investors "follow the crowd" and conventional wisdom to avoid any regret in the event their decisions prove to be incorrect.
QUANTIFYING INVESTOR EMOTIONS OR INVESTOR SENTIMENT
When a stock or market index rises, we know that it means investors are more eager to buy than to sell. But how can we accurately gauge just how investors feel?
Most often, investors are somewhere between mildly positive and mildly negative, and only occasionally do they demonstrate the extremes of greed or fear. It is easier to detect emotion when it is close to either irrational exuberance or outright fear. When markets act this way, it becomes "news" and moves from the business section, to being featured at the start of the evening news, and on the front page of the daily newspaper.
The success of charting as a tool, depends on investors repeating their behaviour patterns. There is always a comfort factor in doing the same as others and generally an aversion to behaving differently. Investors display herding instincts in their behaviour and this has become particularly noticeable among institutional investors. In the early stages of a rising trend in a market, positive sentiment can act as a positive driving force as everyone rushes in to join the party. However, there comes a time after the trend has been in place, when this positive sentiment acts as a warning that the trend is nearing its climax. That's when smart investors will start switching to alternative investments.
The most sophisticated and active players in the market use derivative products to effect their transactions. These players tend to display earlier changes in emotion than most investors and normally their emotions run to greater extremes. So, derivative markets are a good source of data on investor sentiment. There are various options available on stocks, ETF's and indexes. By using an option pricing formula, we can extract a measure of how much investors are prepared to pay for the possibility of making a profit, or hedging against a loss. This is known as implied volatility, and it provides a mathematical valuation of investor emotion. Implied volatility tends to be high (the scale is inverted) when the market has had a sharp fall and this is associated with investor fear. At the other extreme, low implied volatility often occurs after a rise in the market and when investors are becoming complacent.
Implied volatility image
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityAA.gif
WHAT IS THE VIX?
VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index for the S&P 500 (SPX). It is a measure of the level of implied volatility and not historical or statistical volatility. A numerical value for the VIX has been published by the CBOE since 1993. The method of calculating VIX was changed in early 2003. Instead of using the S&P 100 (OEX) Index options, it is now calculated using the options on the S&P 500 (SPX). Also note that the VXN is the symbol for the implied volatility index of the NASDAQ 100 index.
The implied volatilities are weighted to give the VIX a value that in effect acts as the implied volatility of an at-the-money SPX option at 22-trading days to expiration. The VIX represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money SPX option. If implied volatility is high, the premium on options will be high and vice versa. Generally speaking, rising option premiums reflect rising expectation of future volatility of the underlying stock index, which represents higher implied volatility levels. The higher the VIX, the more panic in the markets and the greater the chance that investors have given up hope, taken their money, and gone home.
Comparing the movement of the VIX with that of the market can quite often provide clues as to the future direction the market might move. The more the VIX increases in value, the more "panic" is an issue in the market place. On the flip side, the more the VIX decreases in value, the more complacency there is amongst investors. The psychological impact measured by a relatively high VIX is a clear indicator that tells traders markets are oversold. A historic example was displayed on July 23rd 2002 when the VIX shot over 55. That big move coincided with a significant low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that was followed by a 1,034-point, six-day rally. That rally didn't stick and the market again re-tested its July low in October of 2002. But throughout this double bottom in 2002 the VIX accurately identified a major directional shift in the market. At its core, the VIX is a statistical measure of emotions, and emotions are a major factor signalling capitulation in the market.
Sample charts
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility1.gif
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility2.gif
INVERSE RELATIONSHIP
Extremely high readings of VIX indicate market bottoms, while low readings indicate market tops.
The VIX actually has an inverse relationship to the stock market. This is one of the first things you'll notice when viewing the VIX on a bar chart. When the VIX goes down the stock market moves higher. When the VIX advances, the stock market is headed lower. Generally speaking, a rising stock market is considered less risky by investors. On the other hand, a declining stock market is considered more risky. Therefore, the higher the perceived risk by investors the higher the implied volatility. This will make options, especially put options, more expensive.
When the phrase "implied volatility" is mentioned, keep in mind that it is not about the size of price swings. Rather it's the implied risk that is associated with taking a position in the stock market. When the stock market declines, the demand for put options usually increases. Increased demand means higher put option prices.
USING VIX to TIME the MARKET
One early study identified a VIX value of 25 as normal, and a value above 35 as high. Between October 1997 and May 2001 the VIX indicator went above 35 eleven times. In this study, the S&P 500 index as represented by SPY ETF. was purchased each time and held until the VIX retreated below 25. There were 9 profitable trades for an average gain of 3.1% and an average holding period of about one month. By using this VIX timing scheme you could capture 80% of total gains in the market, but your money is only at risk one third of the time.
Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility3.gif
Extremes in fear mark great buying opportunities.
Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility4.gif
THE CONTRARIAN VIEW POINT OF THE VIX
An extended and/or extremely low VIX suggests a high degree of complacency and is commonly considered bearish. From the contrarian view point ,many traders are of the opinion that if the VIX becomes low, they'll begin looking for a reason to begin selling stock. On the flip-side of the coin, a very high VIX can indicate a high degree of anxiety which often leads to panic among options traders. This action is often considered bullish by the contrarian, and they'll look for reasons to begin buying stock. High VIX readings usually occur after an extended or sharp market decline with investor sentiment still very bearish. Some contrarians view readings above 35 as bullish. Hence, they'll begin looking for a major market turn to the upside.
The VIX should be used in conjunction with "regular" analysis of price action on price charts. The wise trader will never make a purchase or sale based solely on the price level of the VIX. The wise trader will use the VIX (and its support and resistance levels) in conjunction with the price action of charts of the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ.
Using the VIX with charts of these indices will help you get a good grasp of the current market psychology. Since market movements are based entirely on human emotions, it is important for traders to understand psychological indicators. When the VIX is used correctly it helps you stay on the right side of the market and make profitable trades.
SUMMARY
Understanding Investor Sentiment (or Investor Psychology) is by far the most powerful tool an investor can use to understand exactly where the stock market is, and where it is going. But it is often hard to digest, as it is counter intuitive to our human nature.
Here is a recent example that will help illustrate this point.
In September 2005, the TSX was making multi year highs. While the VIX Indexes was down near multi year lows. Standing back and looking at these two pieces of information, you might question the wisdom of adding long-term money to this market at this time.
You might, but human nature would not.
From GARY NORRIS
Canadian Press
Mon Oct 17, 3:58 PM ET
Canadians are shovelling money into mutual funds almost like it's 2001 again, with September purchases of $1.8 billion - up from net redemptions of $545 million a year ago.
The Investment Funds Institute of Canada said Monday that investments in long-term funds - equity, bond and other funds excluding short-term money market funds - topped half a trillion dollars for the first time. "This underlines the fact that investors are making long-term commitments to funds, and not simply parking their investments temporarily in money market funds," commented Tom Hockin, president of the fund industry association.
Sales in the first nine months of the year, net of redemptions and excluding reinvested distributions, totaled $18.4 billion, "the highest net sales figure since the same period in 2001," Hockin observed.
Yes, you read that correctly, Canadian have not been this enthusiastic since the last time the market was peaking.
TSX Sample Chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityB.gif
Now we don't have enough data yet, but since Canadian Mutual Fund investors did their "extreme" mutual fund shopping last month, the market has already dropped 800 points.
Now ask yourself, if you were going to put money into this market, was September the best, low risk time to do so in the past 5 years? Were these investors thinking analytically, or did the emotion of greed cloud their judgments?
My guess is that this is what I like to call "Panic Buying", of Canadian Mutual Funds last month, will signal the very top of this market, and be the catalyst for a major sell off.
Only time will tell if I am right.
Welcome to the world of investor sentiment analysis.
Investor psychology has been analysed for at least 250 years. Charles MacKay wrote his book, 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds', in 1841, describing, among other manias, the herd mentality that caused the South Sea Bubble. Since then, many academics have published financial theories based on the concept that individuals act rationally and consider all available information in the decision-making process. But real life frequently demonstrates that the behavior of equity markets is irrational and unpredictable. A field known as "behavioural finance" has evolved over the years attempting to explain how emotions influence investors and their decision-making process. Studying human psychology helps predict the general direction of financial markets as well as many stock market bubbles and crashes. At the height of a period of optimism, greed moves stocks higher, ignoring business fundamentals and therefore creating an overpriced market. At the other extreme, fear moves prices lower, ignoring obvious opportunities and creates an undervalued market.
One important study, ("Aspects of Investor Psychology," The Journal of Portfolio Management, Summer 1998) found that investors are much more distressed by prospective losses than they are made happy by equivalent gains. Some researchers theorize that investors "follow the crowd" and conventional wisdom to avoid any regret in the event their decisions prove to be incorrect.
QUANTIFYING INVESTOR EMOTIONS OR INVESTOR SENTIMENT
When a stock or market index rises, we know that it means investors are more eager to buy than to sell. But how can we accurately gauge just how investors feel?
Most often, investors are somewhere between mildly positive and mildly negative, and only occasionally do they demonstrate the extremes of greed or fear. It is easier to detect emotion when it is close to either irrational exuberance or outright fear. When markets act this way, it becomes "news" and moves from the business section, to being featured at the start of the evening news, and on the front page of the daily newspaper.
The success of charting as a tool, depends on investors repeating their behaviour patterns. There is always a comfort factor in doing the same as others and generally an aversion to behaving differently. Investors display herding instincts in their behaviour and this has become particularly noticeable among institutional investors. In the early stages of a rising trend in a market, positive sentiment can act as a positive driving force as everyone rushes in to join the party. However, there comes a time after the trend has been in place, when this positive sentiment acts as a warning that the trend is nearing its climax. That's when smart investors will start switching to alternative investments.
The most sophisticated and active players in the market use derivative products to effect their transactions. These players tend to display earlier changes in emotion than most investors and normally their emotions run to greater extremes. So, derivative markets are a good source of data on investor sentiment. There are various options available on stocks, ETF's and indexes. By using an option pricing formula, we can extract a measure of how much investors are prepared to pay for the possibility of making a profit, or hedging against a loss. This is known as implied volatility, and it provides a mathematical valuation of investor emotion. Implied volatility tends to be high (the scale is inverted) when the market has had a sharp fall and this is associated with investor fear. At the other extreme, low implied volatility often occurs after a rise in the market and when investors are becoming complacent.
Implied volatility image
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityAA.gif
WHAT IS THE VIX?
VIX is the symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index for the S&P 500 (SPX). It is a measure of the level of implied volatility and not historical or statistical volatility. A numerical value for the VIX has been published by the CBOE since 1993. The method of calculating VIX was changed in early 2003. Instead of using the S&P 100 (OEX) Index options, it is now calculated using the options on the S&P 500 (SPX). Also note that the VXN is the symbol for the implied volatility index of the NASDAQ 100 index.
The implied volatilities are weighted to give the VIX a value that in effect acts as the implied volatility of an at-the-money SPX option at 22-trading days to expiration. The VIX represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money SPX option. If implied volatility is high, the premium on options will be high and vice versa. Generally speaking, rising option premiums reflect rising expectation of future volatility of the underlying stock index, which represents higher implied volatility levels. The higher the VIX, the more panic in the markets and the greater the chance that investors have given up hope, taken their money, and gone home.
Comparing the movement of the VIX with that of the market can quite often provide clues as to the future direction the market might move. The more the VIX increases in value, the more "panic" is an issue in the market place. On the flip side, the more the VIX decreases in value, the more complacency there is amongst investors. The psychological impact measured by a relatively high VIX is a clear indicator that tells traders markets are oversold. A historic example was displayed on July 23rd 2002 when the VIX shot over 55. That big move coincided with a significant low in the Dow Jones Industrial Average that was followed by a 1,034-point, six-day rally. That rally didn't stick and the market again re-tested its July low in October of 2002. But throughout this double bottom in 2002 the VIX accurately identified a major directional shift in the market. At its core, the VIX is a statistical measure of emotions, and emotions are a major factor signalling capitulation in the market.
Sample charts
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility1.gif
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility2.gif
INVERSE RELATIONSHIP
Extremely high readings of VIX indicate market bottoms, while low readings indicate market tops.
The VIX actually has an inverse relationship to the stock market. This is one of the first things you'll notice when viewing the VIX on a bar chart. When the VIX goes down the stock market moves higher. When the VIX advances, the stock market is headed lower. Generally speaking, a rising stock market is considered less risky by investors. On the other hand, a declining stock market is considered more risky. Therefore, the higher the perceived risk by investors the higher the implied volatility. This will make options, especially put options, more expensive.
When the phrase "implied volatility" is mentioned, keep in mind that it is not about the size of price swings. Rather it's the implied risk that is associated with taking a position in the stock market. When the stock market declines, the demand for put options usually increases. Increased demand means higher put option prices.
USING VIX to TIME the MARKET
One early study identified a VIX value of 25 as normal, and a value above 35 as high. Between October 1997 and May 2001 the VIX indicator went above 35 eleven times. In this study, the S&P 500 index as represented by SPY ETF. was purchased each time and held until the VIX retreated below 25. There were 9 profitable trades for an average gain of 3.1% and an average holding period of about one month. By using this VIX timing scheme you could capture 80% of total gains in the market, but your money is only at risk one third of the time.
Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility3.gif
Extremes in fear mark great buying opportunities.
Sample chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/Impliedvolatility4.gif
THE CONTRARIAN VIEW POINT OF THE VIX
An extended and/or extremely low VIX suggests a high degree of complacency and is commonly considered bearish. From the contrarian view point ,many traders are of the opinion that if the VIX becomes low, they'll begin looking for a reason to begin selling stock. On the flip-side of the coin, a very high VIX can indicate a high degree of anxiety which often leads to panic among options traders. This action is often considered bullish by the contrarian, and they'll look for reasons to begin buying stock. High VIX readings usually occur after an extended or sharp market decline with investor sentiment still very bearish. Some contrarians view readings above 35 as bullish. Hence, they'll begin looking for a major market turn to the upside.
The VIX should be used in conjunction with "regular" analysis of price action on price charts. The wise trader will never make a purchase or sale based solely on the price level of the VIX. The wise trader will use the VIX (and its support and resistance levels) in conjunction with the price action of charts of the S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ.
Using the VIX with charts of these indices will help you get a good grasp of the current market psychology. Since market movements are based entirely on human emotions, it is important for traders to understand psychological indicators. When the VIX is used correctly it helps you stay on the right side of the market and make profitable trades.
SUMMARY
Understanding Investor Sentiment (or Investor Psychology) is by far the most powerful tool an investor can use to understand exactly where the stock market is, and where it is going. But it is often hard to digest, as it is counter intuitive to our human nature.
Here is a recent example that will help illustrate this point.
In September 2005, the TSX was making multi year highs. While the VIX Indexes was down near multi year lows. Standing back and looking at these two pieces of information, you might question the wisdom of adding long-term money to this market at this time.
You might, but human nature would not.
From GARY NORRIS
Canadian Press
Mon Oct 17, 3:58 PM ET
Canadians are shovelling money into mutual funds almost like it's 2001 again, with September purchases of $1.8 billion - up from net redemptions of $545 million a year ago.
The Investment Funds Institute of Canada said Monday that investments in long-term funds - equity, bond and other funds excluding short-term money market funds - topped half a trillion dollars for the first time. "This underlines the fact that investors are making long-term commitments to funds, and not simply parking their investments temporarily in money market funds," commented Tom Hockin, president of the fund industry association.
Sales in the first nine months of the year, net of redemptions and excluding reinvested distributions, totaled $18.4 billion, "the highest net sales figure since the same period in 2001," Hockin observed.
Yes, you read that correctly, Canadian have not been this enthusiastic since the last time the market was peaking.
TSX Sample Chart
http://www.theuptrend.com/ebook/ImpliedvolatilityB.gif
Now we don't have enough data yet, but since Canadian Mutual Fund investors did their "extreme" mutual fund shopping last month, the market has already dropped 800 points.
Now ask yourself, if you were going to put money into this market, was September the best, low risk time to do so in the past 5 years? Were these investors thinking analytically, or did the emotion of greed cloud their judgments?
My guess is that this is what I like to call "Panic Buying", of Canadian Mutual Funds last month, will signal the very top of this market, and be the catalyst for a major sell off.
Only time will tell if I am right.
Optimizing any web page involves both on-page and off-page optimization
Optimizing any web page involves both on-page and off-page optimization. Whereas on-page optimization emphasizes the use of carefully selected keywords to write a web page, off-page optimization is all about building links to the web page from other web pages as well as other websites. The leading search engines' ranking algorithms have placed much importance on links that it is not possible to achieve a high-ranking based solely on competitive keywords.
Links
There are two basic types of links used in websites. One is the navigational link which connects pages within a site. The other one is the hypertext link which offer parenthetical material, footnotes, digression or parallel themes that can serve to provide relevant information in relation to the main content of the page. Both types of links however, can be disruptive or problematic in the overall site design when not used in its proper context.
Links can distract attention especially if a paragraph or text is filled up with invitations to readers to proceed to other pages or sites. This threatens the smooth flow of content as readers jump from one page or site to another. The context of information can entirely be altered as readers find themselves in an unrelated territory without the benefit of any introduction or proper explanation.
The primary purpose of having links is the reinforcement of an author's original message by providing a choice of connected materials. Links should be geared towards pointing to other resources within the site which uses related texts or visuals. A reader should be made clearly aware when he/she leaves one website and enters another through a link.
Good hypertext linking aims to maintain a site's contact with its readers. A simple link will usually work within a single browser window where the original content disappears substituted by the linked page. This can be avoided by adding the TARGET = "main" argument to link tags. Through this, the linked page will appear in a new browser window in front of the original one which allows the reader to access the new material without losing visual contact with the original site. The use of frames is another way to maintain narrative and design context. Frames can be used to split the browser screen between site navigation and the material intended to be brought out.
Website navigational links can be provided through plain text links, JavaScript links, PHP links or graphical links. Plain text links are the easiest to implement and its use is recommended even if other link types are being used as a main navigational structure. All search engines are able to follow them although it can be very difficult to maintain them for websites that have more than 50 pages. Providing careful attention to website design can address problems associated with this. JavaScript navigation is used to build complex drop down menus for large websites. It offers the advantage of an almost effortless change procedure once it is implemented but it requires more knowledge and expertise to implement. However, this type of link is not followed by search engines hence the pages referenced by the said links may not be indexed without some other form of navigation provided.
Linking in Relation to Usability
Usability is the ability to successfully and confidently learn or complete a task with a reasonable amount of comfort provided to the end user. Usability in the eyes of a website designer or application developer is being able to design and build websites that can be understood and easy to use in accomplishing a task. It is essentially about meeting the needs of customers and anticipating their other needs to help them reach their goal through a website that is true to its own goal of providing the right information or at least access to it.
A usable website stands to reap the benefits of conversion and customer satisfaction. A website should be able to tell the reader what it is all about, what product or services are being offered and what procedural steps are being taken that will earn the trust of customers. Most importantly, it should be able to meet the needs of both humans as well as search engines. Both are intent on understanding a web page, knowing how to get to the next relevant page and being able to find that all important link. The information structure of a website should be construed in a way that would enhance the speed and understanding of it.
The priority of SEOs is to get clients' web pages into search engines and directories as well as to have them ranked good enough to be found by end users. Marketing and usability should come hand in hand so that the site owner does not only have prime spots in search engines but also customer conversion as well. The ultimate challenge of any website developer is to be able to ultimately build sites for people and not for search engines only.
A link has two ends – the source anchor and the destination anchor. The term link however, usually refers to the source anchor while the destination anchor is called the link target. The most common link target is a URL (Uniform Resource Locator) used in the World Wide Web which can refer to a document such as a web page, other resource or to a position in a web page which is achieved by means of an HTML element.
Hyperlinks are usually displayed in a web browser by some distinguishing way such as a different color, font or style. The usage of a mouse cursor changing into a hand motif may also indicate a link in a graphical user interface. Links in most graphical web browsers are displayed as underlined blue text when not cached and underlined purple text when cached.
Having the right link in the right place at the right time and page is the dream of any website owner. Most pages have some type of main navigation to access major categories within the site. Another set of links pointing to things like a privacy policy may also be seen. Many sites use secondary navigation on pages within sections of the site. A different section may provide a different set of links in the secondary navigation which can be very helpful to users and search engines. The navigational links are often seen in a content-rich area on a page. It is very common to see links embedded within the text in the content area of web pages which is very advantageous from a search engine optimization point of view. One of the existing dangers of this practice is when these links are missed due to the reader's natural tendency to just scan the pages due to time constraints. Embedded links should be placed within the content in a way that they can easily be seen. Having too many can make it very difficult to read the text on a page. Confine these kinds of links to the most important and outstanding links. The rest of the links can be placed in other critical parts of the page.
Links
There are two basic types of links used in websites. One is the navigational link which connects pages within a site. The other one is the hypertext link which offer parenthetical material, footnotes, digression or parallel themes that can serve to provide relevant information in relation to the main content of the page. Both types of links however, can be disruptive or problematic in the overall site design when not used in its proper context.
Links can distract attention especially if a paragraph or text is filled up with invitations to readers to proceed to other pages or sites. This threatens the smooth flow of content as readers jump from one page or site to another. The context of information can entirely be altered as readers find themselves in an unrelated territory without the benefit of any introduction or proper explanation.
The primary purpose of having links is the reinforcement of an author's original message by providing a choice of connected materials. Links should be geared towards pointing to other resources within the site which uses related texts or visuals. A reader should be made clearly aware when he/she leaves one website and enters another through a link.
Good hypertext linking aims to maintain a site's contact with its readers. A simple link will usually work within a single browser window where the original content disappears substituted by the linked page. This can be avoided by adding the TARGET = "main" argument to link tags. Through this, the linked page will appear in a new browser window in front of the original one which allows the reader to access the new material without losing visual contact with the original site. The use of frames is another way to maintain narrative and design context. Frames can be used to split the browser screen between site navigation and the material intended to be brought out.
Website navigational links can be provided through plain text links, JavaScript links, PHP links or graphical links. Plain text links are the easiest to implement and its use is recommended even if other link types are being used as a main navigational structure. All search engines are able to follow them although it can be very difficult to maintain them for websites that have more than 50 pages. Providing careful attention to website design can address problems associated with this. JavaScript navigation is used to build complex drop down menus for large websites. It offers the advantage of an almost effortless change procedure once it is implemented but it requires more knowledge and expertise to implement. However, this type of link is not followed by search engines hence the pages referenced by the said links may not be indexed without some other form of navigation provided.
Linking in Relation to Usability
Usability is the ability to successfully and confidently learn or complete a task with a reasonable amount of comfort provided to the end user. Usability in the eyes of a website designer or application developer is being able to design and build websites that can be understood and easy to use in accomplishing a task. It is essentially about meeting the needs of customers and anticipating their other needs to help them reach their goal through a website that is true to its own goal of providing the right information or at least access to it.
A usable website stands to reap the benefits of conversion and customer satisfaction. A website should be able to tell the reader what it is all about, what product or services are being offered and what procedural steps are being taken that will earn the trust of customers. Most importantly, it should be able to meet the needs of both humans as well as search engines. Both are intent on understanding a web page, knowing how to get to the next relevant page and being able to find that all important link. The information structure of a website should be construed in a way that would enhance the speed and understanding of it.
The priority of SEOs is to get clients' web pages into search engines and directories as well as to have them ranked good enough to be found by end users. Marketing and usability should come hand in hand so that the site owner does not only have prime spots in search engines but also customer conversion as well. The ultimate challenge of any website developer is to be able to ultimately build sites for people and not for search engines only.
A link has two ends – the source anchor and the destination anchor. The term link however, usually refers to the source anchor while the destination anchor is called the link target. The most common link target is a URL (Uniform Resource Locator) used in the World Wide Web which can refer to a document such as a web page, other resource or to a position in a web page which is achieved by means of an HTML element.
Hyperlinks are usually displayed in a web browser by some distinguishing way such as a different color, font or style. The usage of a mouse cursor changing into a hand motif may also indicate a link in a graphical user interface. Links in most graphical web browsers are displayed as underlined blue text when not cached and underlined purple text when cached.
Having the right link in the right place at the right time and page is the dream of any website owner. Most pages have some type of main navigation to access major categories within the site. Another set of links pointing to things like a privacy policy may also be seen. Many sites use secondary navigation on pages within sections of the site. A different section may provide a different set of links in the secondary navigation which can be very helpful to users and search engines. The navigational links are often seen in a content-rich area on a page. It is very common to see links embedded within the text in the content area of web pages which is very advantageous from a search engine optimization point of view. One of the existing dangers of this practice is when these links are missed due to the reader's natural tendency to just scan the pages due to time constraints. Embedded links should be placed within the content in a way that they can easily be seen. Having too many can make it very difficult to read the text on a page. Confine these kinds of links to the most important and outstanding links. The rest of the links can be placed in other critical parts of the page.
Saturday, November 26, 2011
So you want to be a millionaire?
Who doesn't...
I come across so many people that say "I'm going to make a million dollars in network marketing". I have conversations with people telling me how they're going to become millionaires.
That's great I'll help you reach that goal every way I can.
But you know what?
Not everyone is going to make a million dollars in network marketing... and that's ok.
Most people's lives would change with an extra $500 or $1000 a month.
If you're in network marketing the opportunity is here to become a millionaire.
let's talk about that for a second.
To become a millionaire in network marketing is going to take lot of WORK.
Yes, you can do it in the shortest amount of time compared to other business opportunities but you still have to WORK...
But you work smart not hard.
And the cost for start up is minimal.
But it still takes WORK!! no matter how you cut it.
To become a millionaire in network marketing you're going to have to do things differently.
What do I mean? One of my mentors Michael Dlouhy told me this.
"Duffy if you want more, you're going have to become more".
That made a lot of sense to me.
So what if you're not going to make a million dollars a year in network marketing?
Look I'm not saying you're not going to make a million dollars, but let's say it's not in the cards or that's an amount you can't relate to. (Lots of people can't relate to earning that kind of money)
How much do you make now?
I'll go with the average and say $30,000. Everything is ok, sometimes it's a struggle but you get by, but things could be better.
Imagine doubling your income. Can you imagine earning $60,000 per year?
Sure you can.
So if you didn't make a million dollars a year but you're making $60,000 in network marketing would you consider yourself a failure?
NO!!
But let's say your better at this then you thought and you're earning $100,000 to $150,000 per year.
Would you consider yourself a failure?
HELL NO!!
Do you think you could have a pretty good life earning that amount each year?
YOU BET!!!
Man if you're earning that kind of money from network marketing. You're winning trips, vacations, getting deals on conventions or even winning trips to your companies conventions, your winning shopping trips, bonus money, car programs, free product or services.
The things many people have to spend money on such as trips, vacations, products, services and cars. You're could be getting them from your company for a lot less or even free, because of your ranking in your company.
The life you may want may be a lot closer then you think.
Tell me, if you made $100,000 to $150,000 per year in network marketing you'd be a very happy camper, yes?
Tell me you wouldn't, I dare ya.
I believe in you!!
Until Next Time
To Your MLM Success
Duffy Rogan
I come across so many people that say "I'm going to make a million dollars in network marketing". I have conversations with people telling me how they're going to become millionaires.
That's great I'll help you reach that goal every way I can.
But you know what?
Not everyone is going to make a million dollars in network marketing... and that's ok.
Most people's lives would change with an extra $500 or $1000 a month.
If you're in network marketing the opportunity is here to become a millionaire.
let's talk about that for a second.
To become a millionaire in network marketing is going to take lot of WORK.
Yes, you can do it in the shortest amount of time compared to other business opportunities but you still have to WORK...
But you work smart not hard.
And the cost for start up is minimal.
But it still takes WORK!! no matter how you cut it.
To become a millionaire in network marketing you're going to have to do things differently.
What do I mean? One of my mentors Michael Dlouhy told me this.
"Duffy if you want more, you're going have to become more".
That made a lot of sense to me.
So what if you're not going to make a million dollars a year in network marketing?
Look I'm not saying you're not going to make a million dollars, but let's say it's not in the cards or that's an amount you can't relate to. (Lots of people can't relate to earning that kind of money)
How much do you make now?
I'll go with the average and say $30,000. Everything is ok, sometimes it's a struggle but you get by, but things could be better.
Imagine doubling your income. Can you imagine earning $60,000 per year?
Sure you can.
So if you didn't make a million dollars a year but you're making $60,000 in network marketing would you consider yourself a failure?
NO!!
But let's say your better at this then you thought and you're earning $100,000 to $150,000 per year.
Would you consider yourself a failure?
HELL NO!!
Do you think you could have a pretty good life earning that amount each year?
YOU BET!!!
Man if you're earning that kind of money from network marketing. You're winning trips, vacations, getting deals on conventions or even winning trips to your companies conventions, your winning shopping trips, bonus money, car programs, free product or services.
The things many people have to spend money on such as trips, vacations, products, services and cars. You're could be getting them from your company for a lot less or even free, because of your ranking in your company.
The life you may want may be a lot closer then you think.
Tell me, if you made $100,000 to $150,000 per year in network marketing you'd be a very happy camper, yes?
Tell me you wouldn't, I dare ya.
I believe in you!!
Until Next Time
To Your MLM Success
Duffy Rogan
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)